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ERIC Number: EJ1360812
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2023-Feb
Pages: 24
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-1521-0251
EISSN: EISSN-1541-4167
Predicting Dropout for Nontraditional Undergraduate Students: A Machine Learning Approach
Huo, Huade; Cui, Jiashan; Hein, Sarah; Padgett, Zoe; Ossolinski, Mark; Raim, Ruth; Zhang, Jijun
Journal of College Student Retention: Research, Theory & Practice, v24 n4 p1054-1077 Feb 2023
Student attrition represents one of the greatest challenges facing U.S. postsecondary institutions. Approximately 40 percent of students seeking a bachelor's degree do not graduate within 6 years; among nontraditional students, who make up half of the undergraduate population, dropout rates are even higher. In this study, we developed a machine learning classifier using the XGBoost model and data from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) Beginning Postsecondary Students (BPS) Longitudinal Study: 2012/14 to predict nontraditional student dropout. In comparison with baseline models, the XGBoost model and logistic regression model with features identified by the XGBoost model displayed superior performance in predicting dropout. The predictive ability of the model and the features it identified as being most important in predicting nontraditional student dropout can inform discussion among educators seeking ways to identify and support at-risk students early in their postsecondary careers.
SAGE Publications. 2455 Teller Road, Thousand Oaks, CA 91320. Tel: 800-818-7243; Tel: 805-499-9774; Fax: 800-583-2665; e-mail: journals@sagepub.com; Web site: https://sagepub.com
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: Postsecondary Education
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A