This article discusses the quality assurance policy of doctoral studies implemented in Lithuania and its probable outcomes are forecasted. In scientific literature the quality of education is commonly defined as a holistic phenomenon composed of the quality of initial conditions, quality of process and quality of outputs. The accomplished document analysis indicates that the quality assurance of doctoral studies in Lithuania is pursued through increased requirements for the quality of initial conditions, whereas requirements for process and outputs quality do not change or even decrease. Meanwhile, the opposite trend--orientation towards outputs and quality improvement of doctoral study process is emphasized in "Bologna Process Communiques" and in the conclusions of the doctoral programmes project worked out by the European University Association. Our analysis allows to forecast that higher education policy implemented currently in Lithuania will not improve the quality of doctoral studies essentially, eventually it can increasingly discord with Bologna Process provisions. (Contains 2 tables.)