Students' ways of approaching their studies influence their academic outcomes. Expecting high grades and having the skills to steer learning activities towards assessment demands seem to be important components of academic success. However, our knowledge about students' capacity to predict academic achievement is limited. Focusing on first-semester psychology students, this study aimed to investigate (a) students' self-assessment skills, and (b) how approaches to learning were related to self-assessment skills, and to expected and final academic outcomes. Data from two sources were analysed: (1) students' (N = 189) responses to the 52-item version of the Approaches and Study Skills Inventory for Students (ASSIST) questionnaire and their assessment expectations and (2) final course grades that were retrieved from official university records. Results showed that 18 per cent of the students provided perfect ratings of their final grades while most underestimated their grades. Students reporting the best self-assessment skills expected high grades, but achieved low grades, and reported a low surface approach. Students with a low surface and a high strategic approach both expected and achieved high grades. Students with a deep approach expected high grades but did not perform as expected. Taken together, students new to a discipline seem to have difficulties estimating their grades. Variations between approaches probably relate to the discipline being new and to circumstances characterising the local educational setting, such as the examination favouring a strategic approach. Practical implications involve carefully considering how assessments may steer student approaches and learning outcomes.