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Direct linkSanborn, Adam N.; Mansinghka, Vikash K.; Griffiths, Thomas L. – Psychological Review, 2013
People have strong intuitions about the influence objects exert upon one another when they collide. Because people's judgments appear to deviate from Newtonian mechanics, psychologists have suggested that people depend on a variety of task-specific heuristics. This leaves open the question of how these heuristics could be chosen, and how to…
Descriptors: Heuristics, Statistical Inference, Mechanics (Physics), Intuition
Griffiths, Thomas L.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B. – Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 2011
Predicting the future is a basic problem that people have to solve every day and a component of planning, decision making, memory, and causal reasoning. In this article, we present 5 experiments testing a Bayesian model of predicting the duration or extent of phenomena from their current state. This Bayesian model indicates how people should…
Descriptors: Bayesian Statistics, Statistical Inference, Models, Prior Learning
