Student self-expectations are believed to exert a powerful influence on performance. Student perceptions and social comparisons during transfer students' (N=1362) first semester in a large state university were examined to determine variables that might be related to the formation of student performance expectations. Subjects completed questionnaires measuring their perceptions of academic subject preparation, personal adjustment, university demands, and institutional climate, and self-comparisons with students similar and dissimilar to themselves. Cumulative grade point averages obtained for each student at the end of the second semester showed that student expectations formed during the first semester were significantly related to actual performance at the end of the first year. Results indicated that student perceptions and social comparisons were related to performance expectations. The most important predictor of student expectancies was their perception of the demands of the university, followed by social comparison with students similar to themselves. Perceptions of academic subject preparation and institutional climate, and social comparison with other students also contributed to student expectancies. The findings suggest that further research should focus on the assessment of students' expectations at the beginning of their university experience. (Author/NRB)