This paper combines a theoretical-based model with a data-driven approach to develop an Early Warning System that detects students who are more likely to dropout. The model uses innovative multilevel statistical and machine learning methods. The paper demonstrates the validity of the approach by applying it to administrative data from a leading…

This cluster-randomised study investigated the effects of a Norwegian early warning system, the IKO model. IKO is a Norwegian acronym for identification, assessment, and follow-up, and the model aims to improve schools' abilities to identify and support students who are at risk of dropping out during the school year. The study involved 7677…

The application of formative assessment principles in higher education has become increasingly important in South Africa. In this case study the researcher assesses the effectiveness of the application of an early warning system to the higher-education environment in a high failure rate subject. This method is applied according to recommended…

Early Warning Systems (EWS) and Early Warning Indictors (EWI) have recently emerged as an attractive domain for states and school districts interested in predicting student outcomes using data that schools already collect with the intention to better time and tailor interventions. However, current diagnostic measures used across the domain do not…

Determining which students are at risk of poorer outcomes -- such as dropping out, failing classes, or decreasing standardized examination scores -- has become an important area of research and practice in both K-12 and higher education. The detectors produced from this type of predictive modeling research are increasingly used in early warning…

In 2013-14, the high school graduation rate reached a record high of 82 percent (U.S. Department of Education 2015a). Despite the gains, over half a million students still drop out of high school each year (U.S. Department of Education 2015b). High schools have adopted various strategies designed to keep students who are at risk of not graduating…

To stem the tide of students dropping out, many schools and districts are turning to early warning systems (EWS) that signal whether a student is at risk of not graduating from high school. While some research exists about establishing these systems, there is little information about the actual implementation strategies that are being used across…

Nationally, more than one million youth drop out of high school each year. One in four young people do not graduate with their age mates. Thus, in recent years, national leaders have directed sustained attention to what they term the "dropout crisis," particularly in high schools that are graduating less than two-thirds of their…

Early warning systems (EWS), in the context of secondary transition, are tools that analyze individual student-level data and estimate each student's risk of dropping out of school or completing school on time. Such tools generally consider three primary types of data--commonly referred to as the A, B, Cs: attendance/absence data,…

The state of Wisconsin has one of the highest four year graduation rates in the nation, but deep disparities among student subgroups remain. To address this the state has created the Wisconsin Dropout Early Warning System (DEWS), a predictive model of student dropout risk for students in grades six through nine. The Wisconsin DEWS is in use…

This study provides a comprehensive review of the phenomenon of students dropping out from tertiary education. Student withdrawal is the result of a long decision-making process and complex interaction between several determinants. We first provide an overview of definitions, theoretical models and perspectives of dropping out. Referring to…

Early warning systems use school record data--such as attendance rate, behavior records, and course performance--to identify students at risk of dropping out. These are useful predictors of graduation-related outcomes, in large part because they indicate a student's level of engagement with school. However, these data do not indicate how invested…

Early warning systems combine multiple data points, translate them into predictive indicators that are based on research, and proactively communicate them to stakeholders, so they can examine which students are or are not on track for postsecondary success and intervene accordingly. Early warning reports provide the student-level information…

The United States high school dropout problem has been called a national crisis, with only 74.9% of public high school students graduating with a diploma in 2008. With states and districts under mounting pressure to raise graduation rates, there is increasing urgency to obtain more accurate and timely data to systematically identify students most…

The Early Warning System (EWS) Tool v2.0 is a Microsoft Excel-based tool developed by the National High School Center at the American Institutes for Research in collaboration with Matrix Knowledge Group. The tool enables schools, districts, and states to identify students who may be at risk of dropping out of high school and to monitor these…