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ERIC Number: EJ873755
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2010
Pages: 17
Abstractor: As Provided
ISSN: ISSN-0022-0671
Grades and Graduation: A Longitudinal Risk Perspective to Identify Student Dropouts
Bowers, Alex J.
Journal of Educational Research, v103 n3 p191-207 2010
Studies of student risk of school dropout have shown that present predictors of at-risk status do not accurately identify a large percentage of students who eventually drop out. Through the analysis of the entire Grade 1-12 longitudinal cohort-based grading histories of the class of 2006 for two school districts in the United States, the author extends past longitudinal conceptions of dropout to a longitudinal risk perspective, using survival analysis, life tables, and discrete-time hazard modeling to appropriately account for student graduation, transfer, or dropout. The risk of dropout began in Grade 7, with the most hazardous years at Grades 8 and 11. A novel calculation of teacher-assigned grades, noncumulative GPA, is identified as a strong predictor of student dropout. (Contains 4 tables, 2 figures and 6 notes.)
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Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Evaluative
Education Level: Elementary Secondary Education; Grade 1; Grade 11; Grade 7; Grade 8
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers - Location: United States