The document reviews recent literature on warning processes, evaluates the effectiveness of warnings in changing public policy and personal behavior, and applies warning literature to specific problem areas. Warning is interpreted to include a statement of the problem and a proposed course of action. The document is presented in six parts. Part one identifies the three major groups for which warning literature has been reviewed: (1) shortages of basic supplies, including food and fuel; (2) calamities and accidents related to toxins, chemicals, and radioactivity; and (3) failure of society to provide basic services. Part two presents case studies of responses to air raid alarms, floods, alcohol abuse, and panic by public officials. Responses to warning differed according to the extent to which the event was unfamiliar, sudden, unexpected, and localized. Part three outlines a strategy for effective warnings. Part four lists 44 findings from warning literature, and presents two disaster scenarios. Part five forecasts circumstances which will probably require warnings in the future. These include diminishing oil supplies, water shortages, nuclear explosion, petroleum-related accidents, insecticide poisoning, and the collapse of the social security system. Part six suggests that futurists should concentrate on educating leaders in urban areas on matters related to toxic and nuclear plants and on centralizing collection and analysis of forecasts pertaining to stressful circumstances. (Author/DB)