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ERIC Number: EJ747109
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2006
Pages: 15
Abstractor: Author
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-0364-0213
EISSN: N/A
Decision Making and Confidence Given Uncertain Advice
Lee, Michael D.; Dry, Matthew J.
Cognitive Science, v30 n6 p1081-1095 2006
We study human decision making in a simple forced-choice task that manipulates the frequency and accuracy of available information. Empirically, we find that people make decisions consistent with the advice provided, but that their subjective confidence in their decisions shows 2 interesting properties. First, people's confidence does not depend solely on the accuracy of the advice. Rather, confidence seems to be influenced by both the frequency and accuracy of the advice. Second, people are less confident in their guessed decisions when they have to make relatively more of them. Theoretically, we develop and evaluate a type of sequential sampling process model--known as a self-regulating accumulator--that accounts for both decision making and confidence. The model captures the regularities in people's behavior with interpretable parameter values, and we show its ability to fit the data is not due to excessive model complexity. Using the model, we draw conclusions about some properties of human reasoning under uncertainty.
Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc. 10 Industrial Avenue, Mahwah, NJ 07430. Tel: 800-926-6579; Tel: 201-258-2200; Fax: 201-236-0072; e-mail: journals@erlbaum.com; Web site: https://www.erlbaum.com
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Evaluative
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A