ERIC Number: EJ781435
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2008-Jan
Reference Count: 0
Violations of Coherence in Subjective Probability: A Representational and Assessment Processes Account
Mandel, David R.
Cognition, v106 n1 p130-156 Jan 2008
Coherent judgment is a cardinal feature of rational cognition. Six experiments revealed systematic violations of coherence in probability judgment in which participants assigned different probabilities to mathematically equiprobable events. Experiments 1-5 revealed a "strict refocusing effect": Compared to an occurrence frame, a non-occurrence frame resulted in higher estimates if base-rate evidence favored occurrence, lower estimates if evidence favored non-occurrence, and similar estimates if evidence supported indifference. Moreover, Experiments 5 and 6 revealed a "pessimistic bias" in which the less favorable of two equiprobable events was assigned greater probability. The findings support a Representational and Assessment Processes account (RAP) in which subjective probability is influenced by the perceived compatibility between representations of focal events and representations of evidence.
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Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
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