ERIC Number: EJ1159369
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2017-Dec
Abstractor: As Provided
Estimating True Student Growth Percentile Distributions Using Latent Regression Multidimensional IRT Models
Lockwood, J. R.; Castellano, Katherine E.
Educational and Psychological Measurement, v77 n6 p917-944 Dec 2017
Student Growth Percentiles (SGPs) increasingly are being used in the United States for inferences about student achievement growth and educator effectiveness. Emerging research has indicated that SGPs estimated from observed test scores have large measurement errors. As such, little is known about "true" SGPs, which are defined in terms of nonlinear functions of latent achievement attributes for individual students and their distributions across students. We develop a novel framework using latent regression multidimensional item response theory models to study distributional properties of true SGPs. We apply these methods to several cohorts of longitudinal item response data from more than 330,000 students in a large urban metropolitan area to provide new empirical information about true SGPs. We find that true SGPs are correlated 0.3 to 0.5 across mathematics and English language arts, and that they have nontrivial relationships with individual student characteristics, particularly student race/ethnicity and absenteeism. We evaluate the potential of using these relationships to improve the accuracy of SGPs estimated from observed test scores, finding that accuracy gains even under optimal circumstances are modest. We also consider the properties of SGPs averaged to the teacher level, widely used for teacher evaluations. We find that average true SGPs for individual teachers vary substantially as a function of the characteristics of the students they teach. We discuss implications of our findings for the estimation and interpretation of SGPs at both the individual and aggregate levels.
Descriptors: Item Response Theory, Correlation, Student Characteristics, Academic Achievement, Achievement Gains, Regression (Statistics), Teacher Effectiveness, Error of Measurement, Guidelines, Longitudinal Studies, Race, Ethnicity, Attendance, Accuracy, Teacher Evaluation, English, Language Arts, Bayesian Statistics, Grade 4, Grade 5, Grade 6, Grade 7, Grade 8
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Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: Grade 4; Intermediate Grades; Elementary Education; Grade 5; Middle Schools; Grade 6; Grade 7; Junior High Schools; Secondary Education; Grade 8
Sponsor: Institute of Education Sciences (ED)
Authoring Institution: N/A
IES Funded: Yes
Grant or Contract Numbers: R305D140032