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ERIC Number: ED635576
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 2021
Pages: 28
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: N/A
EISSN: N/A
Rank-Normalization, Folding, and Localization: An Improved [R-Hat] for Assessing Convergence of MCMC
Aki Vehtari; Andrew Gelman; Daniel Simpson; Bob Carpenter; Paul-Christian Burkner
Grantee Submission
Markov chain Monte Carlo is a key computational tool in Bayesian statistics, but it can be challenging to monitor the convergence of an iterative stochastic algorithm. In this paper we show that the convergence diagnostic [R-hat] of Gelman and Rubin (1992) has serious flaws. Traditional [R-hat] will fail to correctly diagnose convergence failures when the chain has a heavy tail or when the variance varies across the chains. In this paper we propose an alternative rank-based diagnostic that fixes these problems. We also introduce a collection of quantile-based local efficiency measures, along with a practical approach for computing Monte Carlo error estimates for quantiles. We suggest that common trace plots should be replaced with rank plots from multiple chains. Finally, we give recommendations for how these methods should be used in practice. [This paper was published in "Bayesian Analysis" v16 p667-718 2021.]
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: Office of Naval Research (ONR) (DOD); National Science Foundation (NSF); Institute of Education Sciences (ED)
Authoring Institution: N/A
IES Funded: Yes
Grant or Contract Numbers: R305D190048