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ERIC Number: ED635432
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 2019
Pages: 31
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: N/A
EISSN: N/A
Bayesian Comparison of Latent Variable Models: Conditional vs Marginal Likelihoods
Merkle, E. C.; Furr, D.; Rabe-Hesketh, S.
Grantee Submission, Psychometrika v84 p802-829 2019
Typical Bayesian methods for models with latent variables (or random effects) involve directly sampling the latent variables along with the model parameters. In high-level software code for model definitions (using, e.g., BUGS, JAGS, Stan), the likelihood is therefore specified as conditional on the latent variables. This can lead researchers to perform model comparisons via conditional likelihoods, where the latent variables are considered model parameters. In other settings, however, typical model comparisons involve marginal likelihoods where the latent variables are integrated out. This dis- tinction is often overlooked despite the fact that it can have a large impact on the comparisons of interest. In this paper, we clarify and illustrate these is- sues, focusing on the comparison of conditional and marginal Deviance Information Criteria (DICs) and Watanabe-Akaike Information Criteria (WAICs) in psychometric modeling. The conditional/marginal distinction corresponds to whether the model should be predictive for the clusters that are in the data or for new clusters (where "clusters" typically correspond to higher- level units like people or schools). Correspondingly, we show that marginal WAIC corresponds to leave-one-cluster out (LOcO) cross-validation, whereas conditional WAIC corresponds to leave-one-unit out (LOuO). These results lead to recommendations on the general application of the criteria to models with latent variables.
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: National Science Foundation (NSF); Institute of Education Sciences (ED)
Authoring Institution: N/A
IES Funded: Yes
Grant or Contract Numbers: 1460719; R305D140059; R305D190048