A forward-looking scenario for the vocational training system extending to the year 1995 is composed of two parts. The first comprises a forecast, with both optimistic and pessimistic variants, relating to the economic, technical, political, and demographic contextual aspects that play a major role in determining the profile of the vocational training system. The second part charts out the response paths for the vocational training system. The demand for training places is conditioned by the demographically induced decline in the number of school leavers and the marked upgrading of the importance of holding a school-leaving certificate. Only in the event of a favorable economic trend does the supply of training opportunities surpass the demand. The school-leaving certificate becomes increasingly important as a criterion for access to in-company vocational training. The prospects for meeting the needs of problem groups deteriorate. A shift occurs in in-company vocational training provision in the direction of medium and large companies and the service sector. The spread of information technology implies a considerable raising of skill requirements in many training occupations. Demands on trainers increase substantially with the need for more compact training processes based on more intensive use of training media and new learning and teaching methods. (YLB)