This study sought to develop a predictive model for use by educational decision makers in establishing junior colleges, as more needs and costs become known and more precise bases for judgment are needed. Decision-making models were considered suitable for this study. Correspondence with officials produced a valid list of criteria and identified trends in college establishment. Questionnaires sent to the administrators of 113 selected colleges brought the 48 responses used in this study. The 73 criteria they identified were reduced to 21 by factor analysis. A form, sent to officials in certain states, rated their colleges on 27 facets of operation. A score was calculated for classifying the success of the school. A discriminant analysis procedure provided a way to determine (1) the accuracy of classification, (2) the contribution of each criterion to the classification, and (3) the structure of the model. This model was shown as a chart, a worksheet that anyone could use. The trend in establishment criteria was toward more long-range state planning, with allowance for local needs. As demands increase, planners need more precise ways of acquiring data for their decisions. No precise formula of establishment or of determining the quantitative effect of any criterion was revealed. Education managers have not used current management information systems. The criteria that best predict institutional success were identified; this showed the feasibility of using refined quantitative approaches to solve other educational problems. (HH)