ERIC Number: ED235406
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1983-Mar-24
Reference Count: 0
Prediction of Recidivism in Juvenile Offenders Based on Discriminant Analysis.
Proefrock, David W.
The recent development of strong statistical techniques has made accurate predictions of recidivism possible. To investigate the utility of discriminant analysis methodology in making predictions of recidivism in juvenile offenders, the court records of 271 male and female juvenile offenders, aged 12-16, were reviewed. A cross validation group (N=43) was randomly selected from the original sample. Cases were selected for inclusion based on age of less than 17 at the time of evaluation; evaluation battery which included at least the mini-mult form of the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI), either the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children--Revised (WISC-R) or the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (WAIS); and Full Scale Intelligence of at least 70. The 12 discriminant variables which were examined represented demographic, economic, educational, legal, and personality indices. Discriminant analysis was performed on the entire sample at the end of a 12-month follow-up period (analysis 1), and again at the end of the same follow-up period (analysis 2) on that portion of the sample not placed in a residential setting following evaluation. Results showed that both of the derived discriminant functions were able to predict recidivism at better than the established change level. The factors which proved to be important in the prediction of recidivism were the D and K scales (which measure depression, guilt, openness and trust) from the mini-multi MMPI and prior criminality, particularly the seriousness of that record. (BL)
Publication Type: Reports - Research; Speeches/Meeting Papers
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers: Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory
Note: Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Southeastern Psychological Association (29th, Atlanta, GA, April 23-26, 1983).