ERIC Number: ED201251
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1981
Reference Count: 0
The First Six Months: PDEM Innovations in Forecasting Higher Education, January to July 1972.
Hoffman, Benjamin B.
A Postsecondary Demand Survey was undertaken in 1972 to study the demand for postsecondary education in Manitoba, Canada, and to develop a system for forecasting enrollment at postsecondary institutions. The survey objective was to establish a profile of grade 12 students in 1972 to learn about their aspirations, plans, expectations after graduation, and about their preferences for postsecondary institutions and programs; and to analyze the influence of their academic standing, financial situation, high school environment, family and friends on their current decisions and future plans. A quantitative model was developed to forecast postsecondary enrollment by institution, faculty, and program. Four main factors are used in the forecasting model: motivation for higher education, other plans after graduation, academic standing, and financial status. Based on the estimated values of the four influencing factors, a decision model allocates the student population to five groups: going, not going, in doubt, undecided, and going-impacted. The in doubt, undecided, and going-impacted groups are reassigned to the going and not going categories, and the going category is allocated to first, second, third choice institutions and programs. The model also uses linear programming techniques to allocate students to institutions, faculties, and programs. The objective of this allocation is to maximize student satisfaction in their choice of institution/program. Advantages and limitations of the model are considered, and appended materials include a sample survey and a list of objectives and target groups of the demand and enrollment model. (SW)
Descriptors: Academic Aspiration, Career Planning, College Bound Students, College Choice, Educational Demand, Enrollment Influences, Enrollment Projections, Financial Needs, Foreign Countries, Grade Point Average, High School Seniors, Higher Education, Majors (Students), Models, Noncollege Bound Students, Occupational Aspiration, Parent Influence, Postsecondary Education, Prediction, Student Adjustment, Student Educational Objectives
Publication Type: Reports - Research; Tests/Questionnaires
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: Manitoba Post-Secondary Research Reference Committee.
Identifiers: Canada; Manitoba
Note: Appended document is entitled "Objectives and Target Groups: PDEM-II," October 6, 1975.