ERIC Number: ED159809
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1977
Reference Count: 0
The Projections of Pupil Population in New York State. Research Study 10.
Furno, Orlando F.; Fowler, William J., Jr.
Important because of implications for program planning, student costs, and state aid payments, this study projects New York State's public and private student enrollment from 1976 to 1990. The study reviews research procedures, statistical methods, and sources of essential information for predicting enrollment. Literature concerning enrollment projection is reviewed. The consensus of this literature is that the modified cohort-survival technique is the least expensive and time-consuming satisfactory method of enrollment forecasting. The study analyzes enrollment data and projects live births and birthrates. It projects public school enrollments by region and both public and private K-12 enrollment, senior high school graduates, and pupils in special education classes. Some nationwide data analysis is also included. The data indicate that in New York State, public school K-12 enrollment will decline until 1988 when it will begin to rise again. The number of public school graduates will rise until 1981 when it will begin to decline. Overall private school enrollment and number of private school graduates will decline until at least 1990. Both public and private special education enrollment will rise at least until 1990. Public school enrollments are projected to decrease in every region until 1990. A lengthy bibliography is appended. (Author/JM)
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers: New York
Note: Not available in paper copy due to small print of tables