The import or force of the result of a statistical test has long been portrayed as consistent with deductive reasoning. The simplest form of deductive argument has a first premise with conditional form, such as p[right arrow]q, which means that "if p is true, then q must be true." Given the first premise, one can either affirm or deny…

Adaptive measurement of change (AMC) is a psychometric method for measuring intra-individual change on one or more latent traits across testing occasions. Three hypothesis tests--a Z test, likelihood ratio test, and score ratio index--have demonstrated desirable statistical properties in this context, including low false positive rates and high…

This article studies the Type I error, false positive rates, and power of four versions of the Lagrange multiplier test to detect measurement noninvariance in item response theory (IRT) models for binary data under model misspecification. The tests considered are the Lagrange multiplier test computed with the Hessian and cross-product approach,…

We investigate two non-iterative estimation procedures for Rasch models, the pair-wise estimation procedure (PAIR) and the Eigenvector method (EVM), and identify theoretical issues with EVM for rating scale model (RSM) threshold estimation. We develop a new procedure to resolve these issues--the conditional pairwise adjacent thresholds procedure…

M-fluctuation tests are a recently proposed method for detecting differential item functioning in Rasch models. This article discusses a generalization of this method to two additional item response theory models: the two-parametric logistic model and the three-parametric logistic model with a common guessing parameter. The Type I error rate and…

Past research suggests revised parallel analysis (R-PA) tends to yield relatively accurate results in determining the number of factors in exploratory factor analysis. R-PA can be interpreted as a series of hypothesis tests. At each step in the series, a null hypothesis is tested that an additional factor accounts for zero common variance among…

We briefly discuss the philosophical basis of science, causality, and scientific evidence, by introducing the hidden but most fundamental principle of science: the similarity principle. The principle's use in scientific discovery is illustrated with Simpson's paradox and other examples. In discussing the value of null hypothesis statistical…

Bayesian and classical statistical approaches are based on different types of logical principles. In order to avoid mistaken inferences and misguided interpretations, the practitioner must respect the inference rules embedded into each statistical method. Ignoring these principles leads to the paradoxical conclusions that the hypothesis…

This article considers the nature and place of tests of statistical significance (ToSS) in science, with particular reference to psychology. Despite the enormous amount of attention given to this topic, psychology's understanding of ToSS remains deficient. The major problem stems from a widespread and uncritical acceptance of null hypothesis…

Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) provides an important statistical toolbox, but there are a number of ways in which it is often abused and misinterpreted, with bad consequences for the reliability and progress of science. Parts of contemporary NHST debate, especially in the psychological sciences, is reviewed, and a suggestion is made…

The article provides perspectives on p values, null hypothesis testing, and alternative techniques in light of modern robust statistical methods. Null hypothesis testing and "p" values can provide useful information provided they are interpreted in a sound manner, which includes taking into account insights and advances that have…

Because of the continuing debates about statistics, many researchers may feel confused about how to analyze and interpret data. Current guidelines in psychology advocate the use of effect sizes and confidence intervals (CIs). However, researchers may be unsure about how to extract effect sizes from factorial designs. Contrast analysis is helpful…

Critics of null hypothesis significance testing suggest that (a) its basic logic is invalid and (b) it addresses a question that is of no interest. In contrast to (a), I argue that the underlying logic of hypothesis testing is actually extremely straightforward and compelling. To substantiate that, I present examples showing that hypothesis…

Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has been the subject of debate for decades and alternative approaches to data analysis have been proposed. This article addresses this debate from the perspective of scientific inquiry and inference. Inference is an inverse problem and application of statistical methods cannot reveal whether effects…

This study defines subpopulation item parameter drift (SIPD) as a change in item parameters over time that is dependent on subpopulations of examinees, and hypothesizes that the presence of SIPD in anchor items is associated with bias and/or lack of invariance in three psychometric outcomes. Results show that SIPD in anchor items is associated…