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Gelman, Andrew; Hullman, Jessica; Wlezien, Christopher; Morris, George Elliott – Grantee Submission, 2020
Presidential elections can be forecast using information from political and economic conditions, polls, and a statistical model of changes in public opinion over time. However, these "knowns" about how to make a good presidential election forecast come with many unknowns due to the challenges of evaluating forecast calibration and…
Descriptors: Presidents, Elections, Incentives, Public Opinion
Dai, Ting; Van Boekel, Martin; Cromley, Jennifer; Nelson, Frank; Fechter, Tia – Grantee Submission, 2018
This case study describes how our research team conducted the qualitative think-aloud approach (or cognitive pretesting) to obtaining cognitive validity evidence for a biology inference-making and reasoning measure for undergraduate students. The main goal of our work was to gather high-quality student think-aloud data of reasoning while they were…
Descriptors: Biology, Science Instruction, Problem Solving, Teaching Methods