ERIC Number: EJ750886
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2006
Pages: 13
Abstractor: ERIC
Reference Count: 22
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-0098-9495
Models for Predicting School District Fiscal Stress: One Size Does Not Fit All
De Luca, Barbara M.
Journal of Education Finance, v31 n4 p420-432 Spr 2006
The purpose of this research is to investigate factors that contribute to fiscal problems for public school districts in order to develop a model using benchmarks for maintaining fiscal health. School district revenues and expenditures are analyzed in order to identify patterns that can be used to predict financial stress. Of the 606 school districts in Ohio, 32 were in one of three possible level of fiscal stress between 1996 and 2002: fiscal caution, fiscal watch, and fiscal emergency. The school districts were grouped by type and then regrouped by size (number of students). A separate stepwise discriminate analysis was run for each group in each set to determine factors significant for that group for predicting fiscal stress. Based on the percentage correctly classified in both analyses, the method of analysis used appears to have some legitimacy. A higher percentage of districts was classified correctly with the typology model than with the average daily membership (ADM) model. The findings show that different factors predicted fiscal health in nearly every category of each model, that one model does not fit all districts. The model differs not only from state to state but also within each state, from district to district. (Contains 7 tables.)
Descriptors: School District Spending, School District Wealth, Enrollment Rate, Educational Finance, Benchmarking, Financial Problems, Models, Statistical Analysis, Classification, Prediction, Predictor Variables, Economics
University of Illinois Press. 1325 South Oak Street, Champaign, IL 61820-6903. Tel: 217-244-0626; Fax: 217-244-8082; e-mail: journals@uillinois.edu; Web site: http://www.press.uillinois.edu/journals/main.html
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: Elementary Secondary Education
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers - Location: Ohio

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