Projections for first-time undergraduate applicants at the University of Virginia were made using historical data on the states in which applicants live and projections that were made in a report entitled "High School Graduates: Projections for the Fifty States (1982-2000). The report was jointly produced by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, the Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association, and the College Board. The historical data and projections of first-time undergraduate applicants to the University of Virginia cover the period 1985-2000. Recent trends in first-time black undergraduate applicants are also examined. Analysis of 6 years of historical data identified 24 states and the District of Columbia from which 97 percent of first-time undergraduate applications were received. Projections from the "High School Graduates" report for each of the 24 states for each year between 1985 and 2000 were entered into a Lotus model. A rate of application was calculated for each state using a 3-to-5-year average. Data are provided on: applications by state for fall 1983, first-time black undergraduate applicant trends for 1979-1984 from in-state and out-of-state applicants, and "High School Graduates" projections for nine states. (SW)