Evaluators are often called upon to assess the effects of programs. To assess a program effect, evaluators need a clear understanding of how a program effect is defined. Arguably, the most widely used definition of a program effect is the counterfactual one. According to the counterfactual definition, a program effect is the difference between…

Alarmed by his students' random use of causal language in their essays, James Edward Carroll resolved to help his students improve their understanding of causal processes. Carroll decided to introduce his students to the metaphors that historians use to describe causation in the historiography of the Salem witch trials. By modelling how historians…

From an early age, children show a keen interest in discovering the causal structure of the world around them. Given how fundamental causal information is to scientific inquiry and knowledge, this early emerging "causal stance" might be important in propelling the development of scientific literacy. However, currently little is known…

The view that empirical strategies in economics should be transparent and credible now goes almost without saying. The local average treatment effects (LATE) framework for causal inference helped make this so. The LATE theorem tells us for whom particular instrumental variables (IV) and regression discontinuity estimates are valid. This lecture…

For misguided reasons, social scientists have long been reluctant to use gain scores for estimating causal effects. This article develops graphical models and graph-based arguments to show that gain score methods are a viable strategy for identifying causal treatment effects in observational studies. The proposed graphical models reveal that gain…

Causal-formative indicators are often used in social science research. To achieve identification in causal-formative indicator modeling, constraints need to be applied. A conventional method is to constrain the weight of a formative indicator to be 1. The selection of which indicator to have the fixed weight, however, may influence statistical…

The clustered observational study (COS) design is the observational study counterpart to the clustered randomized trial. In a COS, a treatment is assigned to intact groups, and all units within the group are exposed to the treatment. However, the treatment is non-randomly assigned. COSs are common in both education and health services research. In…

Causal mediation analysis is a popular approach for investigating whether the effect of an exposure on an outcome is through a mediator to better understand the underlying causal mechanism. In recent literature, mediation analysis with multiple mediators has been proposed for continuous and dichotomous outcomes. In contrast, methods for mediation…

Although cross-sectional studies depict (negative) emotions as both antecedents and consequences of trait procrastination, longitudinal studies examining reciprocal relationships between procrastination and emotions are scant. Yet, investigating reciprocal relationships between procrastination and emotions within long-term frameworks can shed…

Causal mechanistic reasoning is a thinking strategy that can help students explain complex phenomena using core ideas commonly emphasized in separate undergraduate courses, as it requires students to identify underlying entities, unpack their relevant properties and interactions, and link them to construct mechanistic explanations. As a…

Pretend play is often hypothesized in a global sense to be an effective context for young children's learning, but there is much still to learn about whether all types of information can be learned equally and whether all types of pretend play are equally beneficial. The present study tests whether preschoolers can learn a simple, novel causal…

School attendance and absenteeism are critical targets of educational policies and practices that often depend heavily on aggregated attendance/absenteeism data. School attendance/absenteeism data in aggregated form, in addition to having suspect quality and utility, minimizes individual student variation, distorts detailed and multilevel…

An extraordinary amount of data is becoming available in educational settings, collected from a wide range of Educational Technology tools and services. This creates opportunities for using methods from Artificial Intelligence and Learning Analytics (LA) to improve learning and the environments in which it occurs. And yet, analytics results…

Fixed effects (FE) panel models have been used extensively in the past, as those models control for all stable heterogeneity between units. Still, the conventional FE estimator relies on the assumption of parallel trends between treated and untreated groups. It returns biased results in the presence of heterogeneous slopes or growth curves that…

Context: A perennial problem in applied statistics is the inability to justify strong claims about cause-and-effect relationships without full knowledge of the mechanism determining selection into treatment. Few research designs other than the well-implemented random assignment study meet this requirement. Researchers have proposed partial…