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Cognition1
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Keren, Gideon1
Teigen, Karl Halvor1
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Waiting for the Bus: When Base-Rates Refuse to Be Neglected
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Teigen, Karl Halvor; Keren, Gideon – Cognition, 2007
The paper reports the results from 16 versions of a simple probability estimation task, where probability estimates derived from base-rate information have to be modified by case knowledge. In the bus problem [adapted from Falk, R., Lipson, A., & Konold, C. (1994), the ups and downs of the hope function in a fruitless search. In G. Wright & P.…
Descriptors: Probability, Word Problems (Mathematics), Problem Solving, Statistical Distributions