Clinical research has found a strong association between negative affect and returning to alcohol use after a period of abstinence. Yet little is known about the probability of a lapse given a particular level of negative affect or whether there is a reciprocal relationship between negative affect and alcohol use across time. The goal of the current study was to examine the association between negative affect and drinking behavior in the 1st year following alcohol treatment. The authors applied an associative latent transition analysis to the Project MATCH outpatient data (n = 952) and then replicated the model in the Project MATCH aftercare data (n = 774). Changes in drinking following treatment were significantly associated with current and prior changes in negative affect, and changes in negative affect were related to prior changes in drinking (effect size range = 0.13-0.33). The results supported the hypothesis that negative affect and alcohol lapses are dynamically linked and suggest that targeting the relationship between negative affect and alcohol use could greatly decrease the probability of lapses and improve alcohol treatment outcomes. (Contains 6 footnotes, 4 tables, and 2 figures.)