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Direct linkPennycook, Gordon; Trippas, Dries; Handley, Simon J.; Thompson, Valerie A. – Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2014
Base-rate neglect refers to the tendency for people to underweight base-rate probabilities in favor of diagnostic information. It is commonly held that base-rate neglect occurs because effortful (Type 2) reasoning is required to process base-rate information, whereas diagnostic information is accessible to fast, intuitive (Type 1) processing…
Descriptors: Probability, Intuition, Cognitive Processes, Physicians
Handley, Simon J.; Evans, Jonathan St. B. T.; Thompson, Valerie A. – Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 2006
Under the suppositional account of conditionals, when people think about a conditional assertion, "if p then q," they engage in a mental simulation in which they imagine p holds and evaluate the probability that q holds under this supposition. One implication of this account is that belief in a conditional equates to conditional probability…
Descriptors: Simulation, Psychological Testing, Cognitive Processes, Probability
