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ERIC Number: EJ1064941
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2015-Jul
Pages: 23
Abstractor: As Provided
ISSN: ISSN-0018-1560
Using Predictive Modelling to Identify Students at Risk of Poor University Outcomes
Jia, Pengfei; Maloney, Tim
Higher Education: The International Journal of Higher Education Research, v70 n1 p127-149 Jul 2015
Predictive modelling is used to identify students at risk of failing their first-year courses and not returning to university in the second year. Our aim is twofold. Firstly, we want to understand the factors that lead to poor first-year experiences at university. Secondly, we want to develop simple, low-cost tools that would allow universities to identify and intervene on vulnerable students when they first arrive on campus. This is why we base our analysis on administrative data routinely collected as part of the enrollment process from a New Zealand university. We assess the "target effectiveness" of our model from a number of perspectives. This approach is found to be substantially more predictive than a previously developed risk tool at this university. For example, observations from validation samples in the top decile of risk scores account for nearly 28% of first-year course non-completions and 22% of second-year student non-retentions at this university.
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Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: Higher Education; Postsecondary Education
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers - Location: New Zealand