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ERIC Number: EJ1121023
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2016
Abstractor: As Provided
A Trillion-Dollar Question: What Predicts Student Loan Delinquencies?
Mezza, Alvaro; Sommer, Kamila
Journal of Student Financial Aid, v46 n3 Article 3 2016
The recent significant increase in student loan delinquencies has generated interest in understanding the key factors predicting the non-performance of these loans. However, despite the large size of the student loan market, existing analyses have been limited by lack of data. This paper studies predictors of student loan delinquencies using a nationally representative panel data set that anonymously combines individual credit bureau records with Federal Pell Grant and federal student loan recipient information, records on college enrollment, graduation and major, and school characteristics. We show that borrower-level credit characteristics are important predictors of student loan delinquencies. In particular, credit scores of young borrowers are highly predictive of future student loan delinquencies, even when measured well before borrowers enter repayment. In marked contrast, our results point to only a limited power of student debt levels in predicting future student loan credit events. Our findings have potentially useful practical implications. For example, access to credit file information when borrowers exit school could help to more effectively target student loan borrowers who might benefit from enrolling in income-driven repayment or loan modification plans.
Descriptors: Student Loan Programs, Debt (Financial), Loan Default, Loan Repayment, Predictor Variables, Student Records, Federal Aid, Enrollment Rate, Graduation Rate, Majors (Students), Institutional Characteristics, Credit (Finance), Credibility, Age Differences, Participant Characteristics, Multivariate Analysis, Educational Attainment, Statistical Data, Predictive Validity, Educational Policy, College Students, Grants
National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators. 1101 Connecticut Avenue NW Suite 1100, Washington, DC 20036. Tel: 202-785-0453; Fax: 202-785-1487; e-mail: email@example.com; Web site: http://www.nasfaa.org
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: Higher Education; Postsecondary Education
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers - Laws, Policies, & Programs: Pell Grant Program