Against the backdrop of unprecedented growth in the global demand for higher education, the UK government has recognised that there is a huge potential market beyond conventional "export education," if its universities can find ways of providing "transnational education" (TNE) to the millions of foreign students unable or unwilling to travel to the UK. This paper tests the thesis that TNE represents "one of Britain's great growth industries of the future." For TNE to flourish, three conditions need to be satisfied, namely: that there is already a strong base of UK TNE activity and expertise on which to build; second, that there will be continuing growth in demand for UK TNE; and, finally, that UK universities have the capability and willingness to expand supply to meet any future growth in demand. It finds little evidence to support the thesis that TNE is, in fact, likely to be a great growth industry and highlights the dangers for policymakers of setting objectives in the absence of a strong evidence base about current capabilities and future market trends.