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ERIC Number: EJ983481
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2008-Jul
Pages: 10
Abstractor: As Provided
Reference Count: 10
ISSN: ISSN-0022-5002
Base-Rate Neglect as a Function of Base Rates in Probabilistic Contingency Learning
Kutzner, Florian; Freytag, Peter; Vogel, Tobias; Fiedler, Klaus
Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, v90 n1 p23-32 Jul 2008
When humans predict criterion events based on probabilistic predictors, they often lend excessive weight to the predictor and insufficient weight to the base rate of the criterion event. In an operant analysis, using a matching-to-sample paradigm, Goodie and Fantino (1996) showed that humans exhibit base-rate neglect when predictors are associated with criterion events through physical similarity. In partial replications of their studies, we demonstrated similar effects when the predictors resembled the criterion events in terms of similarly skewed base rates. Participants' predictions were biased toward the more (or less) frequent criterion event following the more (or less) frequent predictor. This finding adds to the growing evidence for pseudocontingencies (Fiedler & Freytag, 2004), a framework that stresses base-rate influences on contingency learning. (Contains 3 figures, 2 footnotes and 5 tables.)
Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior. Available from: Indiana University Department of Psychology. Bloomington, IN 47405-1301. Tel: 812-334-0395; FAX: 812-855-4691; e-mail:; Web site:
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: Higher Education; Postsecondary Education
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers - Location: Germany