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ERIC Number: EJ977652
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2012-Jun
Pages: 16
Abstractor: As Provided
Reference Count: 70
ISSN: ISSN-1076-898X
Evolving Judgments of Terror Risks: Foresight, Hindsight, and Emotion--A Reanalysis
Fischhoff, Baruch; Gonzalez, Roxana M.; Lerner, Jennifer S.; Small, Deborah A.
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, v18 n2 pe1-e16 Jun 2012
The authors examined the evolution of cognitive and emotional responses to terror risks for a nationally representative sample of Americans between late 2001 and late 2002. Respondents' risk judgments changed in ways consistent with their reported personal experiences. However, they did not recognize these changes, producing hindsight bias in memories for their judgments. An intensive debiasing procedure failed to restore a foresightful perspective. A fear-inducing manipulation increased risk estimates, whereas an anger-inducing manipulation reduced them--both in predictions (as previously observed) and in memories and judgments of past risks. Thus, priming emotions shaped not only perceptions of an abstract future but also perceptions of a concrete past. These results suggest how psychological research can help to ensure an informed public. (Contains 1 figure and 6 tables.)
American Psychological Association. Journals Department, 750 First Street NE, Washington, DC 20002-4242. Tel: 800-374-2721; Tel: 202-336-5510; Fax: 202-336-5502; e-mail:; Web site:
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Evaluative
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers - Location: United States