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ERIC Number: EJ956226
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2011-Nov
Pages: 19
Abstractor: As Provided
Reference Count: 33
ISSN: ISSN-1052-0147
Delphi in Criminal Justice Policy: A Case Study on Judgmental Forecasting
Loyens, Kim; Maesschalck, Jeroen; Bouckaert, Geert
Qualitative Report, v16 n6 p1477-1495 Nov 2011
This article provides an in-depth case study analysis of a pilot project organized by the section "Strategic Analysis" of the Belgian Federal Police. Using the Delphi method, which is a judgmental forecasting technique, a panel of experts was questioned about future developments of crime, based on their expertise in criminal or social trends. The results demonstrate how police authorities could implement judgmental forecasting methods like Delphi methodology for the anticipation of future criminal trends, and how this technique, applied under specific conditions, can complement current crime analysis techniques. This article will not focus on criminal trends that were forecasted in the pilot project, but on the preconditions for using the Delphi method in criminal justice policy. Hence, this article could contribute to future applications of judgmental forecasting techniques by practitioners in both criminal justice systems and other policy domains. (Contains 4 tables and 1 footnote.)
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Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers - Location: Belgium