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ERIC Number: EJ949549
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2011-Dec-1
Pages: N/A
Abstractor: ERIC
Reference Count: N/A
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-0146-5945
China: Big Changes Coming Soon
Rowen, Henry S.
Policy Review, n170 Dec 2011
Big changes are ahead for China, probably abrupt ones. The economy has grown so rapidly for many years, over 30 years at an average of nine percent a year, that its size makes it a major player in trade and finance and increasingly in political and military matters. This growth is not only of great importance internationally, it is already having profound domestic social effects and it is bound to have internal political ones--sooner or later. Two kinds of changes are in store: (1) political; and (2) economic. There is a significant chance of either, or both, political and economic change in China occurring at some point before 2020. If this change happens, the order in which these two events occur could make a major difference, although one can only guess at how events might play out. If substantial political liberalizing were to occur first, then a less-than-huge economic slowdown shouldn't have a traumatic effect. But if it were to happen the other way around, if economic change comes before political change, then a sharp economic slowdown might result in political liberalizing, or a conservative faction might succeed in tightening the screws, or there might be an extended period of political turbulence. One way or another, developments in China in the next decade have a high probability of deeply affecting the rest of the world--more so than they have already and in very different ways.
Hoover Institution, Stanford University. 21 Dupont Circle NW Suite 310, Washington, DC 20036. Tel: 877-558-3727; Tel: 202-466-6730; Fax: 202-466-6733; e-mail: polrev@hoover.stanford.edu; Web site: http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/about
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Descriptive
Education Level: Adult Education
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers - Location: China