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ERIC Number: EJ944984
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2011-Sep
Pages: 13
Abstractor: As Provided
Reference Count: 89
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-0003-066X
Intelligent Management of Intelligence Agencies: Beyond Accountability Ping-Pong
Tetlock, Philip E.; Mellers, Barbara A.
American Psychologist, v66 n6 p542-554 Sep 2011
The intelligence community (IC) is asked to predict outcomes that may often be inherently unpredictable--and is blamed for the inevitable forecasting failures, be they false positives or false negatives. To move beyond blame games of accountability ping-pong that incentivize bureaucratic symbolism over substantive reform, it is necessary to reach bipartisan agreements on performance indicators that are transparent enough to reassure clashing elites (to whom the IC must answer) that estimates have not been politicized. Establishing such transideological credibility requires (a) developing accuracy metrics for decoupling probability and value judgments; (b) using the resulting metrics as criterion variables in validity tests of the IC's selection, training, and incentive systems; and (c) institutionalizing adversarial collaborations that conduct level-playing-field tests of clashing perspectives. (Contains 3 figures and 1 footnote.)
American Psychological Association. Journals Department, 750 First Street NE, Washington, DC 20002-4242. Tel: 800-374-2721; Tel: 202-336-5510; Fax: 202-336-5502; e-mail: order@apa.org; Web site: http://www.apa.org/publications
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Descriptive
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A