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ERIC Number: EJ905375
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2010
Pages: 16
Abstractor: As Provided
Reference Count: 26
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-0027-3171
A Dual-Process Discrete-Time Survival Analysis Model: Application to the Gateway Drug Hypothesis
Malone, Patrick S.; Lamis, Dorian A.; Masyn, Katherine E.; Northrup, Thomas F.
Multivariate Behavioral Research, v45 n5 p790-805 2010
The gateway drug model is a popular conceptualization of a progression most substance users are hypothesized to follow as they try different legal and illegal drugs. Most forms of the gateway hypothesis are that "softer" drugs lead to "harder," illicit drugs. However, the gateway hypothesis has been notably difficult to directly test--that is, to test as competing hypotheses in a single model that licit drug use might lead to illicit drug use "or" the reverse. This article presents a novel statistical technique, dual-process discrete-time survival analysis, which enables this comparison. This method uses mixture-modeling software to estimate 2 concurrent time-to-event processes and their effects on each other. Using this method, support for the gateway hypothesis in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1997, was weak. However, this article was not designed as a strong test of causal direction but more as a technical demonstration and suffered from certain technological limitations. Both these limitations and future directions are discussed. (Contains 1 footnote, 3 tables, and 1 figure.)
Psychology Press. Available from: Taylor & Francis, Ltd. 325 Chestnut Street Suite 800, Philadelphia, PA 19106. Tel: 800-354-1420; Fax: 215-625-2940; Web site: http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers - Assessments and Surveys: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth