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ERIC Number: EJ903862
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2004
Pages: 11
Abstractor: As Provided
Reference Count: 27
ISSN: ISSN-1443-1475
A Sustainable Cohort of Professional Civil Engineering Graduates? Uncovering the United Kingdom Graduate Crisis
Edwards, David J.; Dainty, Andrew R. J.; Love, Peter E. D.
International Education Journal, v5 n3 p374-384 2004
Undergraduate applications to civil engineering courses have been declining at an alarming rate despite the industry's healthy economic activity. Concerns abound as to the long-term impact of this decline as the sector is already suffering skills shortages across virtually all of its occupations. This paper investigates the likely future trends in undergraduate admissions to civil engineering degree courses based on an analysis of Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS) statistics for the period 1994 to 2000. The analysis reveals that applications have sharply declined over this period from 5,104 in 1994 to 2,905 in 2000. This trend is then modelled using a bivariate quadratic and cubic model equations to determine the volume of future applications. With an R[superscript 2] of 0.99 and a mean absolute percentage error of less than one per cent, the model appears to be robust and reliable. By contrasting graduate intake with sector turnover, the paper explores whether any significant correlation exists between market buoyancy and the attractiveness of a professional civil engineering career. Model forecasts over a six-year period suggest that applications will continue to decline, albeit at a slower rate. The likely causes and implications of the trends are discussed and measures proposed to stem the decline in popularity of civil engineering degree courses. (Contains 5 figures and 2 tables.)
Shannon Research Press. Available from: Australian and New Zealand Comparative and International Education Society. ANZCIES Secretariat, Curtin University, Box U1987, Perth, WA Australia. Tel: +61-8-9266-7106; Fax: +61-8-9266-3222; e-mail:; Web site:
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: Higher Education
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers - Location: United Kingdom