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ERIC Number: EJ885772
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2010-Jun
Pages: 14
Abstractor: As Provided
Reference Count: 64
ISSN: ISSN-1082-989X
Killeen's Probability of Replication and Predictive Probabilities: How to Compute, Use, and Interpret Them
Lecoutre, Bruno; Lecoutre, Marie-Paule; Poitevineau, Jacques
Psychological Methods, v15 n2 p158-171 Jun 2010
P. R. Killeen's (2005a) probability of replication ("p[subscript rep]") of an experimental result is the fiducial Bayesian predictive probability of finding a same-sign effect in a replication of an experiment. "p[subscript rep]" is now routinely reported in "Psychological Science" and has also begun to appear in other journals. However, there is little concrete, practical guidance for use of "p[subscript rep]", and the procedure has not received the scrutiny that it deserves. Furthermore, only a solution that assumes a known variance has been implemented. A practical problem with "p[subscript rep]" is identified: In many articles, "p[subscript rep]" appears to be incorrectly computed, due to the confusion between 1-tailed and 2-tailed "p" values. Experimental findings reveal the risk of misinterpreting "p[subscript rep]" as the predictive probability of finding a same-sign and significant effect in a replication ("p[subscript rep]"). Conceptual and practical guidelines are given to avoid these pitfalls. They include an extension to the case of unknown variance. Moreover, other uses of fiducial Bayesian predictive probabilities for analyzing, designing ("how many subjects?"), and monitoring ("when to stop?") experiments are presented. Concluding remarks emphasize the role of predictive procedures in statistical methodology. (Contains 11 footnotes, 5 tables, and 1 figure.)
American Psychological Association. Journals Department, 750 First Street NE, Washington, DC 20002-4242. Tel: 800-374-2721; Tel: 202-336-5510; Fax: 202-336-5502; e-mail:; Web site:
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A