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ERIC Number: EJ878520
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2010-Mar
Pages: 26
Abstractor: As Provided
Reference Count: 42
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-0278-7393
Conditional Reasoning in Context: A Dual-Source Model of Probabilistic Inference
Klauer, Karl Christoph; Beller, Sieghard; Hutter, Mandy
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, v36 n2 p298-323 Mar 2010
A dual-source model of probabilistic conditional inference is proposed. According to the model, inferences are based on 2 sources of evidence: logical form and prior knowledge. Logical form is a decontextualized source of evidence, whereas prior knowledge is activated by the contents of the conditional rule. In Experiments 1 to 3, manipulations of perceived sufficiency and necessity mapped on the parameters quantifying prior knowledge. Emphasizing rule validity increased the weight given to form-based evidence relative to knowledge-based evidence (Experiment 1). Manipulating rule form (only-if vs. if-then) had a focused effect on the parameters quantifying form-based evidence (Experiment 3). The model also provides a parsimonious description of data from the so-called negations paradigm and adequately accounts for polarity bias in that paradigm (Experiment 4). Relationships to alternative conceptualizations of conditional inference are discussed. (Contains 8 figures and 6 footnotes.)
American Psychological Association. Journals Department, 750 First Street NE, Washington, DC 20002-4242. Tel: 800-374-2721; Tel: 202-336-5510; Fax: 202-336-5502; e-mail: order@apa.org; Web site: http://www.apa.org/publications
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Evaluative
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A