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ERIC Number: EJ859188
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2009-Oct
Pages: 5
Abstractor: As Provided
Reference Count: 0
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-0010-0277
Probability Matching in Choice under Uncertainty: Intuition versus Deliberation
Koehler, Derek J.; James, Greta
Cognition, v113 n1 p123-127 Oct 2009
Gaissmaier and Schooler (2008) [Gaissmaier, W., & Schooler, L. J. (2008). "The smart potential behind probability matching." "Cognition, 109," 416-422] argue that probability matching, which has traditionally been viewed as a decision making error, may instead reflect an adaptive response to environments in which outcomes potentially follow predictable patterns. In choices involving monetary stakes, we find that probability matching persists even when it is not possible to identify or exploit outcome patterns and that many "probability matchers" rate an alternative strategy (maximizing) as superior when it is described to them. Probability matching appears to reflect a mistaken intuition that can be, but often is not, overridden by deliberate consideration of alternative choice strategies. (Contains 1 figure.)
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Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A