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ERIC Number: EJ844528
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2004
Pages: 22
Abstractor: As Provided
Reference Count: 50
ISSN: ISSN-1050-9674
North Carolina Assessment of Risk (NCAR): Reliability and Predictive Validity with Juvenile Offenders
Schwalbe, Craig S.; Fraser, Mark W.; Day, Steven H.; Arnold, Elizabeth Mayfield
Journal of Offender Rehabilitation, v40 n1-2 p1-22 2004
Actuarial risk assessment instruments are used increasingly in juvenile justice to classify youths according to their risk of recidivism. The purpose of this article is to describe the results of two studies of one instrument: the North Carolina Assessment of Risk (NCAR). In the first study, the inter-rater reliability of the risk assessment instrument was estimated with a sample of 175 court counselors who rated videotaped vignettes of juvenile offenders. In the second study, predictive validity was assessed prospectively by following a statewide sample of 464 delinquent youths for 12 months. Findings indicate that the risk assessment instrument increases reliability as compared to clinical judgment. Moreover, risk scores are correlated significantly with rearrest. However, analyses also show that relationships between risk scores and recidivism vary for subgroups based on gender and race/ethnicity. Though challenges remain in improving the accuracy of risk assessment, the findings suggest that actuarial assessment can be a valuable tool to support decision making in juvenile justice. (Contains 6 tables and 2 figures.)
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Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers - Location: North Carolina