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ERIC Number: EJ823545
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2008-Nov
Pages: 13
Abstractor: As Provided
Reference Count: 0
ISSN: ISSN-0278-7393
Driven by Power? Probe Question and Presentation Format Effects on Causal Judgment
Perales, Jose C.; Shanks, David R.
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, v34 n6 p1482-1494 Nov 2008
It has been proposed that causal power (defined as the probability with which a candidate cause would produce an effect in the absence of any other background causes) can be intuitively computed from cause-effect covariation information. Estimation of power is assumed to require a special type of counterfactual probe question, worded to remove potential sources of ambiguity. The present study analyzes the adequacy of such questions to evoke normative causal power estimation. The authors report that judgments to counterfactual probes do not conform to causal power and that they strongly depend on both the probe question wording and the way that covariation information is presented. The data are parsimoniously accounted for by an alternative model of causal judgment, the Evidence Integration rule.
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Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A