The purpose of this paper is to investigate the following question: To what extent would a nationally competitive scholarship program increase science, technology, engineering, or mathematics (STEM) degree awards to our "best and brightest"? This inquiry is prompted by a 2006 report of a National Academy of Sciences (NAS) panel, "Rising Above the Gathering Storm," which proposed a national STEM scholarship program to improve United States competitiveness. Using the Department of Education National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS-88), high school graduates from the class of 1992 who would potentially win such a scholarship were identified using ACT/SAT/AP test scores, grade point averages (GPA) and class standing, high school classes completed, and science fair participation. NELS-88 college transcript data indicated a lower bound estimate of between 60% to 80% of students likely to win the merit scholarships are already completing STEM degrees. (Contains 2 tables and 6 end notes.)