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ERIC Number: EJ783748
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2008-Jan
Pages: 31
Abstractor: Author
Reference Count: 0
ISSN: ISSN-0033-295X
Diagnostic Hypothesis Generation and Human Judgment
Thomas, Rick P.; Dougherty, Michael R.; Sprenger, Amber M.; Harbison, J. Isaiah
Psychological Review, v115 n1 p155-185 Jan 2008
Diagnostic hypothesis-generation processes are ubiquitous in human reasoning. For example, clinicians generate disease hypotheses to explain symptoms and help guide treatment, auditors generate hypotheses for identifying sources of accounting errors, and laypeople generate hypotheses to explain patterns of information (i.e., data) in the environment. The authors introduce a general model of human judgment aimed at describing how people generate hypotheses from memory and how these hypotheses serve as the basis of probability judgment and hypothesis testing. In 3 simulation studies, the authors illustrate the properties of the model, as well as its applicability to explaining several common findings in judgment and decision making, including how errors and biases in hypothesis generation can cascade into errors and biases in judgment.
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Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A