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ERIC Number: EJ783122
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2008-Jan
Pages: 18
Abstractor: Author
Reference Count: 0
ISSN: ISSN-0278-7393
The Ultimate Sampling Dilemma in Experience-Based Decision Making
Fiedler, Klaus
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, v34 n1 p186-203 Jan 2008
Computer simulations and 2 experiments demonstrate the ultimate sampling dilemma, which constitutes a serious obstacle to inductive inferences in a probabilistic world. Participants were asked to take the role of a manager who is to make purchasing decisions based on positive versus negative feedback about 3 providers in 2 different product domains. When information sampling (from a computerized database) was over, they had to make inferences about actual differences in the database from which the sample was drawn (e.g., about the actual superiority of different providers, or about the most likely origins of negatively valenced products). The ultimate sampling dilemma consists in a forced choice between 2 search strategies that both have their advantages and their drawbacks: natural sampling and deliberate sampling of information relevant to the inference task. Both strategies leave the sample unbiased for specific inferences but create errors or biases for other inferences.
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Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A