ERIC Number: EJ778734
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2003-Mar
Reference Count: 0
An Evidential Support Accumulation Model of Subjective Probability
Koehler, Derek J.; White, Chris M.; Grondin, Ray
Cognitive Psychology, v46 n2 p152-197 Mar 2003
A model of cue-based probability judgment is developed within the framework of support theory. Cue diagnosticity is evaluated from experience as represented by error-free frequency counts. When presented with a pattern of cues, the diagnostic implications of each cue are assessed independently and then summed to arrive at an assessment of the support for a hypothesis, with greater weight placed on present than on absent cues. The model can also accommodate adjustment of support in light of the baserate or prior probability of a hypothesis. Support for alternatives packed together in a "residual" hypothesis is discounted; fewer cues are consulted in assessing support for alternatives as support for the focal hypothesis increases. Results of fitting this and several alternative models to data from four new multiple-cue probability learning experiments are reported.
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Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Descriptive
Education Level: N/A
Sponsor: Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council, Ottawa (Ontario).
Authoring Institution: N/A