ERIC Number: EJ720219
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2005
Reference Count: N/A
Anticipating Change: How Many Acute Care Hospital Beds Will Manitoba Regions Need in 2020?
Finlayson, Greg; Stewart, David Kenney; Tate, Robert B.; MacWilliam, Leonard R.; Roos, Noralou P.
Canadian Journal on Aging, v24 suppl 1 p133-140 2005
Being able to anticipate future needs for health services presents a challenge for health planners. Using existing population projections, two models are presented to estimate the demand for hospital beds in regions of Manitoba in 2020. The first, a current-use projection model, simply projects the average use for a recent three-year period into the future. The second, a 10-year trend analysis, uses Poisson regression to project future demand. The current-use projection suggests a substantial increase in the demand for hospital beds, while the trend analysis projects a decline. The last projections are consistent with ongoing increases in rates of day surgeries and declines in lengths of stay. The current-use projections need to be considered in the context of relatively low occupancy rates in rural hospitals and previous research on appropriateness of stays in acute care hospitals. If measures are taken to ensure more appropriate use of acute care hospital beds in the future, then the current-use projections of bed shortages are not a cause for concern.
Descriptors: Foreign Countries, Health Services, Hospitals, Trend Analysis, Health Needs, Needs Assessment, Long Range Planning
University of Toronto Press, 5201 Dufferin Street, North York, Ontario M3H 5T8 Canada. Tel: 416-667-7838; Fax: 416-667-7881.
Publication Type: Information Analyses; Journal Articles
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers - Location: Canada