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ERIC Number: EJ175039
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 1977
Pages: N/A
Abstractor: N/A
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On the Psychology of Experimental Surprises
Slovic, Paul; Fischhoff, Baruch
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 3, 4, 544-51, Nov 77
Studies of the psychology of hindsight have shown that reporting the outcome of a historical event increases the perceived likelihood of that outcome. Three experiments show that similar hindsight effects occur when people evaluate the predictability of scientific results. Implications for the evaluation of scientific research by lay observers are discussed. (Editor/RK)
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