A third of U.S. students are suspended over a K-12 school career. Suspended youth have worse adult outcomes than nonsuspended students, but these outcomes could be due to selection bias: that is, suspended youth may have had worse outcomes even without suspension. This study compares the educational and criminal justice outcomes of 480 youth suspended for the first time with those of 1,193 matched nonsuspended youth from a nationally representative sample. Prior to suspension, the suspended and nonsuspended youth did not differ on 60 pre-suspension variables including students' self-reported delinquency and risk behaviors, parents' reports of socioeconomic status, and administrators' reports of school disciplinary policies. Twelve years after suspension (ages 25-32), suspended youth were less likely than matched nonsuspended youth to have earned bachelor's degrees or high school diplomas, and were more likely to have been arrested and on probation, suggesting that suspension rather than selection bias explains negative outcomes.