The present study investigates to what extent first-language (L1) and second-language (L2) speakers use lexical futures, whether such forms provide evidence of development, and whether these forms are constrained differently from the present indicative (PI) according to linguistic predictors. It uses a combined approach through its concept-oriented consideration of an underreported form and analysis of the behavior of individual learners, along with applying variationist methods to determine whether independent linguistic predictors differentiate between lexical futures and a formally similar structure (i.e., the PI). The study includes 120 English-speaking learners of Spanish from 5 course levels and 20 native speakers (NSs) of Spanish. Participants completed an oral production task, in which they responded to 8 personal prompts. Results indicate that NSs used lexical futures robustly and that part of the development associated with the acquisition of future-time expression included increases in the overall rates of lexical future use and the inventory of lexical future periphrases. Mixed-effects models revealed that from the earliest level lexical futures could be differentiated from the PI as predicted by independent variables, and that independent variables patterned in a more target-like way as course level increased.