ERIC Number: EJ1208166
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2019
Pages: 20
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-2162-3104
EISSN: N/A
Undergraduate International Student Enrollment Forecasting Model: An Application of Time Series Analysis
Chen, Yu April; Li, Ran; Hagedorn, Linda Serra
Journal of International Students, v9 n1 p242-261 2019
This study developed statistical models to forecast international undergraduate student enrollment at a Midwest university. The authors constructed a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model with input variables to estimate future enrollment. This model reflected enrollment patterns by semester through highlighting seasonality. Further, authors added input variables such as visa policy changes, the rapid increase of Chinese undergraduate enrollment, and tuition rate into the model estimation. The visa policy change and the increase of Chinese undergraduate enrollment were significant predictors of international undergraduate enrollment. The effect of tuition rates was significant but minimal in magnitude. Findings of this study generate significant implications for policy, enrollment management, and student services for international students.
Descriptors: Undergraduate Students, Foreign Students, Enrollment Projections, Models, Prediction, Educational Policy, Enrollment Trends, Human Capital, Public Policy, Tuition
Journal of International Students. 4005 Spurgeon Drive #6, Monroe, LA 71203. Tel: 318-600-5743; Fax: 318-342-3131; e-mail: jistudents.submission@gmail.com; Web site: http://jistudents.org
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: Higher Education; Postsecondary Education
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A